In early February, I was struck by this clip with Niall Ferguson, likening Ukraine to Vietnam. (Clip for 2 minutes) The kind of enthusiasm for Ukraine... has had a certain ‘strategic naivety’. Nobody has the faintest idea how to stop this war. …The worst of all possible strategic outcomes. The
For anyone who wants more on ‘domino theory’, here’s Robert Blackwill (2 mins) talking about domino theory, both in Vietnam and a present-day Taiwan context: https://youtu.be/2Rc6yFv_J3I?t=536
Ernest May: ‘Most such worst-cases dominos never fall.’
This is picked up again briefly at 38:30. ‘Arguments on credibility don’t get very far analytically – though they may help persuade Presidents.’ https://youtu.be/2Rc6yFv_J3I?t=2306
And: ‘American history since WWII is filled with instances in which the U.S. acted – Vietnam being the outstanding case – because of issues of credibility, which turned out, in practice, to be vacant.’
These are very bad grounds from which to escalate conflict. (There’s a line in the documentary from Marine platoon leader Karl Marlantes, ‘Killing people for your own ego’.)
For anyone who wants more on ‘domino theory’, here’s Robert Blackwill (2 mins) talking about domino theory, both in Vietnam and a present-day Taiwan context: https://youtu.be/2Rc6yFv_J3I?t=536
Ernest May: ‘Most such worst-cases dominos never fall.’
This is picked up again briefly at 38:30. ‘Arguments on credibility don’t get very far analytically – though they may help persuade Presidents.’ https://youtu.be/2Rc6yFv_J3I?t=2306
And: ‘American history since WWII is filled with instances in which the U.S. acted – Vietnam being the outstanding case – because of issues of credibility, which turned out, in practice, to be vacant.’
These are very bad grounds from which to escalate conflict. (There’s a line in the documentary from Marine platoon leader Karl Marlantes, ‘Killing people for your own ego’.)