Graham Allison: over 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians would have been spared
Graham Allison, Founding Dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, author of the incredible Destined for War, and who (I understand on good authority) was informally – though very closely – advising Jake Sullivan throughout Biden’s term:
https://x.com/GrahamTAllison/status/1902380820565782992
Ending the War in Ukraine: Was Milley Right?
As Ukrainian President Zelensky awaits negotiations to end Russia’s war in his country, I recommend in my latest for Foreign Policy that he reflect on an earlier chapter.In November 2022, Mark Milley, then US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, argued controversially that Ukraine was bogged down in a stalemate and should seize a “window of opportunity for negotiation.” Although nothing came of his proposal, Milley’s Ukrainian counterpart, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, concluded a year later the time had come to say the forbidden word in Kyiv: “stalemate.”
Entering the war’s fourth year, President Trump and Vice President Vance face the same ugly realities and have come to the same conclusion Milley and Zaluzhnyi did. Had Milley’s proposal ended the war by early 2023, over 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians would have been spared and swaths of critical infrastructure left intact. Instead, Ukraine’s economy remains below prewar levels, and a quarter of its citizens are displaced.
For the entirety of 2023, there was an omertà on the suggestion of diplomacy in British media. No editor of note allowed articles that made the argument.
Allison continues:
As Trump told Zelensky last month, “you’re not winning this.” Rather than deny brute facts or persuade an unpersuadable Trump, or wait for a European Godot, Zelensky should focus on Ukraine’s achievement: preserving the country’s independence. Zelensky must now negotiate an ugly but sustainable peace.
[Me = square brackets]:
As Zelensky accepts this reality, I suggest seven pointers:
· First, Zelensky must show Trump respect—with a capital R. [Agreed – this should not be a fringe position in the UK.]
· Second, Ukraine must seek to survive within Russia’s de facto sphere of influence. [Of course, yes.]
· Third, Ukraine must settle for an extended cease-fire or armistice. [I’ve been banging on about for well over a year.]
· Fourth, Zelensky should forget NATO. [Yes.]
· Fifth, Zelensky should consider Trump’s suggestion that “China can help” in a peace agreement. [I argued this extensively and in detail in 2023.]
· Sixth, peace cannot be a respite for Putin to rearm. [It does need a security guarantee.]
· Finally, Ukraine’s best hope lies in a path to EU membership. [An actual plan for this too, if anyone cares to read it.]
The most revered geopolitical advisor of the Biden administration (and really,
American-born geopolitical academic generally) has effectively come to President Trump’s worldview on Ukraine.
The figure who I think called the timing even better than Milley? Professor Allison’s friend and mentor, the late Dr. Kissinger. Kissinger was extremely clear-seeing, even in his very old age.
“Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome,” he said. “Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante,” he added, apparently referring to a restoration of Ukraine’s borders as they were before the war began in February. “Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself.”
“The quest for peace and order has two components that are sometimes treated as contradictory, the pursuit of elements of security and the requirement for acts of reconciliation. If we cannot achieve both, we will not be able to reach either.”
One can only deny the forces of reality so long. How long before you dare soberly look at them?