Digest 31: Zelensky’s closest advisor: Boris said ‘let’s just fight’
On Friday, David Arakhamia, parliamentary leader of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, had this to say on Boris Johnson’s 9 April 2022 trip to Kyiv:
‘When we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we will not sign anything with them [Russia] at all and let’s just fight.’
To be clear: there were other reasons for caution. The full scope of security guarantees for Ukraine had not been entirely ironed out (by Turkish diplomats). And there was reluctance from the people of Ukraine to deal-make. But the wider point from this interview: if Ukraine had agreed to remain neutral and not join NATO, Putin was ready to end the war in March/April 2022 – on incomparably better terms than a deal today could hope for (which surely will involve much greater territorial concessions).
This has been clear for several months – yet still nobody in Western media is willing to talk about a faithful diplomatic chronology, or even allow the publication of anything questioning the government’s stance. (I have 20+ rejection notes from editors to prove this.)
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Further: the remarkable story of Naftali Bennett (former Israeli Prime Minister) meeting one-on-one with Putin, and trying to mediate directly between Putin and Zelensky, has been entirely blacked out from Western media. My research assistant, Se, kindly voice-overed Naftali’s public telling of this (originally in Hebrew) so it’s now much easier to watch. Video here:
https://twitter.com/EdwardMDruce/status/1728342410948759600
This is at +60k views in 24 hours. Please watch it and share. It’s a travesty this has never been covered.
RFK Jr is a serious candidate
For months, I’ve listened to people I admire on podcasts knock RFK Jr as ‘off his rocker’ and ‘not a serious candidate’.
But a founding tenet of this newsletter: go directly to the source, and listen to the individual, rather than develop an opinion of someone based on media spin. When you do this, I have news: RFK Jr is not crazy.
One piece I strongly encourage subscribers to read this week is the following:
Read the article. And watch the video.
RFK Jr’s uncle and father were two of the best leaders of the past century – and arguably would have been of America’s entire history, had their lives not been cut short. RFK Jr is more intimately familiar with this history than anyone. He writes lucidly about it:
John F. Kennedy defied pressure from his Cabinet, the CIA, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff to go to war in Laos in 1961, Berlin in 1962, to invade Cuba after the Bay of Pigs debacle, and nineteen months later to bomb Russian missile batteries during the Cuban missile crisis. His advisors assured him that the launchpads were not yet operational. They were wrong, and his defiance quite likely saved the world from nuclear Armageddon.
He’s not a pacifist. JFK founded both the Peace Corps and the Navy SEALs. He was someone who understood both diplomacy and deterrence – which RFK Jr now celebrates.
Looking ahead, another Biden term seems (for its extremely weak deterrent powers) on a plausible course to WW3. I like Trump on foreign policy, but Trump is divisive enough domestically, another Trump term could conceivably lead to some mild form of American Civil War II.
From what Kennedy has written in the above article, he could be a profoundly good U.S. President. He’s further supportive of much needed things like regenerative agriculture (47 mins in here). And highly intelligent (extremely pro-vaccine) moderates like Bill Ackman agree: ‘On Kennedy, I read the headlines and always had the perception he was a total wacko, and then I spent some time, several hours listening to him on podcasts, and he’s raising some really important points I hadn’t thought about… I’ve written him a cheque.’
I’m not saying RFK will win. This still seems quite unlikely. But it’s not inconceivable that the Democrats run with Biden, leave it too late to swap him, and Biden has some kind of meltdown. And though I think Trump is quite heavily the favourite now to win (and probably will win), his circumstances are sufficiently unpredictable it’s by no means in the bag.
As I’ve been saying for several weeks, RFK Jr’s polling numbers are remarkably strong – in a way almost entirely unacknowledged in British press. But the editor of UnHerd (who has a background in polling) last week said the same – dedicating a whole video to how neglected RFK Jr’s political strength is.
I’m unable to watch RFK Jr’s video here and not hope.
‘A generation that was not, yet still might be.’
Despite all that you’ve likely read, Robert F. Kennedy Jr is a serious candidate.
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Truth bombs from Russell Napier
The best summary of financial advice (that’s mostly comprehensible) you will hear this year in 4 minutes:
‘Everything you think you know about finance from the last 30 years is [now] wrong.’
The government needs to inflate away its debts (government procurement could be vastly improved, but actually cutting things is not politically tenable).
Inflation is actually kind of desirable for most governments (in the sweet spot between melting away debts, but being below the level of causing riots in the streets).
If you believe in the hypothesis of ‘financial repression’: long-term bonds aren’t great. You probably then don’t want most equities (as with debt levels so high, it’s very plausible institutions will have to sell equities as a result of being mandated to buy bonds).
You continue to see central banks the world over buying gold: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dutch-central-bank-admits-it-has-prepared-new-gold-standard
Disclaimer: I am no financial expert. But I broadly agree with the logic of what Russell (who is one) lays out.
Continuing in Ukraine makes us more vulnerable (not less)
An excellent article from Stephen Bryen – a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (in the Reagan administration).
Today even with a ramped up supply of shells, NATO won’t be able to produce more than 163,000 shells a month while the Russians can potentially manufacture over 350,000 monthly.
[To help Ukraine] The US raided its stockpile of 155 shells in Korea and Israel, both very dangerous moves. It left the US with nothing to defend Korea if Kim Jong-un starts a conventional war on the peninsula. North Korea has loads of artillery and plenty of shells. South Korea does not have enough.
The decision to take 300,000 155mm shells stockpiled in Israel and send them on to Ukraine likewise was a bad decision as it left Israel with little more than its own war stocks.
One of the amazing features of the US and its NATO allies supplying millions of tons of ammunition and hardware to Ukraine is that the allies paid almost no attention to contingencies and freely raided stockpiles that were put there for US and NATO national security defense needs. What is true of 155mm ammunition is even more true of precision weapons whose supplies have been depleted. If it takes 3 days to manufacture a basic 155 mm shell; it takes two years or more to produce smart weapons.
The idea of expanding NATO to Ukraine may well have cost the NATO partners a far riskier future.
Running as low as we are on ammo, continuing on in Ukraine does NOT help our deterrence.
Dominic Cummings on Dwarkesh
I think this wins most interesting interview I’ve listened to in all of 2023.
Favourite parts:
25:12 – ‘Responsibility and authority are always delegated together’
55:09 – ‘General Groves would fail too’
1:57:30 – Dominic’s thoughts on Taiwan
The segment on Taiwan doesn’t touch on negotiating semiconductor independence (which I think Dominic would agree with).
For a further understanding of the political origins of Taiwan, I encourage people to read Dan Kurtz-Phelan’s riveting book on George Marshall’s (failed) attempt to broker peace in the post-WWII Chinese Civil War.
Chiang Kai-shek was quite similar to Zelensky. Backed by the U.S. militarily, and hailed in Western press as a pristine freedom fighter (but in fact not adept at military strategy), he thought he could destroy his opposition (Mao and the Communists) militarily – and thus (partly as a result of U.S. military backing) refused to negotiate. The Americans were unable to keep him in check, the whole situation deteriorated, and Chiang had to flee to the island of Formosa (Taiwan) to escape.
Another example of a military rout that plausibly could have been avoided if not for a leader’s hubris.
Where does Ukraine go from here?
This, from the two Alexs at the Duran (for a few minutes), is the best answer I’ve seen:
- Though I think a ~45% chance Newsom still steps in in place of Biden.
- And from all the analysts I’m reading (who were bang-on about the doomed counteroffensive), I sense Ukraine is +60% going to collapse well ahead of both U.S. and UK 2024 elections. If sane voices of mediation do not triumph, politicians trying to kick the can down the road (the ‘hope’ strategy) will likely fail in the most spectacular way – militarily for Ukraine, and politically for Biden/Sunak (this happening on their watch, following their full-fledged support, right as they’re asking people to vote for them).
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Thank you for reading.