Digest 16: Richard Haass on Ukraine; why Japan’s high debt isn’t a good counter to de-dollarisation; ‘Jacksonian attitude’ of extreme retaliation

Most interesting highlights from the past two weeks…

What happens to AI progress if there’s a Taiwan invasion?

~20 seconds:

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Richard Haass on Ukraine

A quite good article from Richard Haass, co-authored with Charles Kupchan, for Foreign Affairs.

Foreign policy luminaries have been notably hawkish the past year on Ukraine. This felt relatively well-balanced.

The best path forward is a sequenced two-pronged strategy aimed at first bolstering Ukraine’s military capability and then, when the fighting season winds down late this year, ushering Moscow and Kyiv from the battlefield to the negotiating table.

Nor should the West worry that pushing for a cease-fire before Kyiv reclaims all its territory will cause the rules-based international order to crumble. Ukrainian fortitude and Western resolve have already rebuffed Russia’s effort to subjugate Ukraine, dealt Moscow a decisive strategic defeat, and demonstrated to other would-be revisionists that pursuing territorial conquest can be a costly and vexing enterprise. Yes, it is critical to minimize Russian gains and demonstrate that aggression doesn’t pay, but this goal must be weighed against other priorities.

A realistic assessment:

Washington faces mounting political pressure to reduce spending, rebuild U.S. readiness, and bulk up its capabilities in Asia. Now that Republicans control the House of Representatives, it will be harder for the Biden administration to secure sizable aid packages for Ukraine. And policy toward Ukraine could change significantly should Republicans win the White House in the 2024 election. It is time to ready a Plan B.

How to do it:

Ideally, the cease-fire would hold, leading to a status quo like the one that prevails on the Korean Peninsula, which has remained largely stable without a formal peace pact for 70 years. Cyprus has similarly been divided but stable for decades. This is not an ideal outcome, but it is preferable to a high-intensity war that continues for years.

Moreover, the United States could make clear to Kyiv that if Putin violated the cease-fire while Ukraine honored it, Washington would further step up the flow of arms and waive restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to target military positions inside Russia from which attacks are being launched. 

if Kyiv did balk, the political reality is that support for Ukraine could not be sustained in the United States and Europe

Ukraine’s goals are coming into conflict with other Western interests. And it is unsustainable, because the war’s costs are mounting, and Western publics and their governments are growing weary of providing ongoing support.

This formula thus blends strategic pragmatism with political principle. 

And beware China’s involvement:

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made a big, long-term wager on Putin and will not stand idly by as Russia suffers a decisive loss.

Xi might also calculate that the risks of providing military assistance to Russia are modest. After all, his country is already decoupling from the West, and U.S. policy toward China seems destined to get tougher regardless of how much Beijing supports Moscow.

I sincerely hope this position becomes mainstream opinion in coming weeks.

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All-In podcast on de-dollarisation

Really good discussion from the four here:

David Sacks goes on to refer to the dollar as ‘still the most eligible bachelor in the leper colony’.

The counterarguments I’ve read against de-dollarisation seem to hinge on an assumption that there needs to be, overnight, a superior alternative to the dollar. I wonder to what degree this is true, or whether international trade could go through a period of chaos where there isn’t a global standard.

Further:
- Update on U.S. real estate
- Why Japan’s high debt isn’t a good counter to say U.S. debt levels are okay
- And I quite like this phrase ‘bank walk’

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‘Jacksonian attitude’ – extreme retaliation as a form of deterrence

Very good clip. I’m not sure whether I agree with this or not, but imaging yourself in the shoes of such decision-makers, it’s an arduous way to think. (Clip for ~9 minutes)

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Pentagon leaks: Ukraine rhyming with Vietnam?

Here are a few short clips I’ve crudely cut together from the Ken Burns documentary (episode 4) on Vietnam:

Does any of this resonate today on Ukraine?

A friend sent me the below clip. I’ve never watched Tucker Carlson before. I do not watch Fox. While not endorsing it, I found it a curious alternate perspective.

Ken Burns is considered ‘left-wing’, and Tucker Carlson by some ‘far right’.

The plausible rhyme in history has swung sides of political spectrum.

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Fraser Nelson on Nigel Lawson and challenging consensus

From Coffee House Shots for 2 minutes:

From the leading article mentioned:

there should always be deep scepticism when we see all parties kneeling before the hastily assembled altars of new fashionable ideas.

I try to do a bit of such consensus-challenging with this Substack.

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